June 9 CIT hearing leaves $39 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds in limbo

A June 9 hearing in U.S. Court of International Trade offered new timing clues for roughly $39 billion in remaining IEEPA tariff refunds, but not a payment schedule. Businesses now face a choice between waiting for government processing or monetizing claims for immediate cash as litigation continues. Why it matters: - Roughly $39 billion in remaining IEEPA tariff refunds are still outside the current Phase 1 CAPE process. - The hearing clarified when customs officials may be able to process some claims, but it did not settle when businesses will actually be paid. - For companies under liquidity pressure, the timing gap could shape whether they wait for refunds or sell claims for cash. What happened: - A June 9 hearing between U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade added detail on the outlook for remaining IEEPA tariff refunds. - The hearing came after the Department of Justice appealed the court’s March 4 ruling that IEEPA tariffs were unlawfully imposed and must be refunded. - No new court order was issued at the hearing. - The discussion focused on refunds that are not yet in the current Phase 1 CAPE process. The details: - About $28.7 billion of reconciliation entries are expected to become processable through the CAPE portal beginning June 29, 2026. - About $11.4 billion of older, finally liquidated entries are expected to become technically processable by the end of July 2026. - About $90 billion of Phase 1 refund claims have reportedly been accepted for processing through CBP’s CAPE portal. - About $23 billion has already been certified and sent to the U.S. Treasury for payment. - The remaining roughly $39 billion largely consists of reconciliation entries and finally liquidated entries outside Phase 1. - Processing capability does not necessarily mean immediate payment. - Actual payment timing will depend on administrative implementation, refund volume, and litigation outcomes. Between the lines: - The hearing gave businesses more visibility on when CBP may be ready to handle the claims operationally. - It did not remove uncertainty around when cash will reach importers. - For reconciliation entries, a possible range runs from meaningful activity in the third quarter of 2026 to payments that could stretch into 2027. - For finally liquidated entries, the DOJ appeal makes the schedule less certain, with some payments potentially starting in the fourth quarter of 2026 and others delayed beyond 2027. - The timing gap is pushing some companies to consider monetizing claims instead of waiting. - Asset Enhancement Solutions Managing Director Neil A. Seiden said many businesses are now focusing less on whether they will receive a refund and more on when they will receive the money. What’s next: - CBP is expected to become operationally prepared to process more reconciliation entries starting June 29 and older entries by the end of July. - Litigation over the tariff ruling continues after the DOJ appeal. - Businesses will keep weighing current market pricing against the possibility of a later, potentially larger government payment. - Some companies may choose partial monetization, converting only part of an expected refund into immediate working capital. - Asset Enhancement Solutions said some claims can be monetized into cash in as little as ten days, depending on size and complexity. The bottom line: - Refund rights appear increasingly secure, but payment timing remains unsettled. For stressed companies, that uncertainty is making immediate liquidity more attractive than waiting for the government process to finish.