Consumers Prove Accurate in Predicting Gas Prices, Says Prosper Insights & Analytics

An analysis of the past 24 months confirms the high alignment between Prosper's early-month expectations and end-of-month actuals.

WORTHINGTON, OH, UNITED STATES, June 19, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- New research from Prosper Insights & Analytics reveals that U.S. consumers are remarkably accurate in forecasting gas prices, reinforcing the value of consumer sentiment as a forward-looking economic indicator. An analysis of data from June 2023 through May 2025 shows a strong correlation between consumer expectations—gathered at the start of each month—and the actual average U.S. gas price reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at month’s end.

“Consumers are often underestimated when it comes to economic insight,” said Gary Drenik, CEO of Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Our monthly data demonstrates that the collective intelligence of the U.S. public is not only intuitive—but predictive.”

Key Findings:
• Pearson Correlation: 0.91 – strong linear relationship
• R² (Regression): 0.82 – 82% of variance in actual prices explained by consumer forecasts
• Consumers slightly overestimate prices, but track direction and trends with high accuracy.

Predicting June 2025 Gas Prices:
Based on data collected in early June, consumers estimate the average gas price at month’s end will be $3.60 per gallon. This figure acts as a leading indicator for analysts and energy market watchers, suggesting potential stabilization compared to recent months.

An analysis of the past 24 months confirms the high alignment between early-month expectations and end-of-month results, making Prosper’s gas price question one of the few statistically validated forward-looking sentiment tools available.

About Prosper Insights & Analytics:
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a leader in consumer-centric data and predictive analytics. Leveraging one of the longest-running monthly consumer surveys in the U.S., Prosper delivers forward-looking insights used by hedge funds, financial platforms, media companies, retailers, and policymakers. Its data powers high-impact forecasting for macroeconomic trends, retail stock performance, and consumer sentiment. Prosper’s gas price forecast question has been asked monthly for over a decade and is trusted by analysts seeking signals ahead of government reports. www.ProsperInsights.com

Phil Rist
Prosper Insights & Analytics
+1 614-846-0146
info@goprosper.com
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